灰色理论模型在城市发展规划中的应用(英文) 本文简介：
TeamB85809TeamNumber:85809ProblemChosen:B2018APMCMsummarysheetTalentandurbandevelopmentAbstractTalentsarethemotiveforceofurbaninnovationanddevelopment
灰色理论模型在城市发展规划中的应用(英文) 本文内容：
Team
B85809
Team
Number
:
85809Problem
Chosen
:B2018
APMCM
summary
sheet
Talent
and
urban
development
Abstract
Talents
are
the
motive
force
of
urban
innovation
and
development.
This
article
disposes
and
analyzes
the
data
of
job
demand
in
A
city
employment
market,
developing
mathematical
model
through
the
analysis
of
known
data
to
solve
practical
problems.
The
prominent
feature
of
this
paper
is
to
establish
the
Grey
Model
to
modeling
analyze
the
known
data
according
to
the
randomness
of
the
dynamic
change
of
the
job
demand
data
of
A
city＇s
employment
market,
the
incompleteness
and
uncertainty
of
the
index
data,
and
relying
on
the
Grey
Model,
to
realize
the
prediction
of
the
variation
trend
of
future
development,
so
as
to
achieve
the
aim
which
expect
to
solve
the
practical
premedication
problem,
simulate
and
analyze
the
actual
situation
of
A
city,
then
put
forward
feasible
suggestions
for
urban
development
and
talent
strategy.
Another
outstanding
feature
is
that
to
make
a
deep
analysis
of
the
talent
demand
and
talent
flow
in
A
city,
then
provide
the
improvement
the
urban
development
strategy
by
expanding
and
applying
the
Grey
Model,
combining
the
influence
of
the
actual
economic
development,
the
demand
for
science
and
technology
development,
the
national
employment
policy
and
the
like
on
the
demand
for
talents
in
the
“A
city
employment
market“.
According
to
the
data
given
by
Question
1,
we
classify
and
analyze
the
data
from
three
aspects:
work
demand,
job
expectancy
and
educational
background
requirement.
We
build
a
Grey
Model
by
MATLAB,
by
using
the
Grey
Model,
we
analyze
the
data
of
four-year
talent
demand
of
A
city,
so
as
to
get
the
forecasting
model
of
talent
demand
of
A
city
which
can
help
to
grasp
the
law
of
talent
demand
in
“A
City
Employment
Market“
In
order
to
meet
the
needs
of
Question
2,
we
forecast
and
analyze
the
potential
talent
demand
in
A
city
in
the
next
three
years
by
using
the
Grey
Model
which
built
in
Question
1.
This
paper
combining
the
prediction
model
with
the
influence
of
the
economic
development
situation,
the
demand
for
science
and
technology
development,
the
national
employment
policy
and
other
factors
on
the
talent
demand
of
“A
City
Employment
Market“,
and
then
makes
a
deep
analysis,
brings
it
into
the
model,
and
analyzes
the
changing
trend
of
the
talent
demand
data
that
affected
by
various
social
levels
as
well.
Focusing
on
the
problem
in
question
3,
we
infer
the
urban
characteristics
of
A
city
by
predicting
the
trend
of
talent
demand
in
A
city
based
on
Grey
Model
according
to
the
conclusion
of
question
two,
to
make
a
comparative
analysis
with
the
actual
data
of
some
cities
in
China,
then
infer
the
administrative
categories,
possible
geographical
region,
economic
status
and
high-tech
Team
B85809
industry
development,
finally
analyzed
the
advantages
and
disadvantages
of
the
development
structure
of
A
city
as
a
whole.
In
response
to
the
new
career
preferences
of
college
students
that
mentioned
in
question
4,
such
as
taking
civil
service
examinations,
starting
their
own
enterprises,
working
in
different
places,
studying
abroad
and
the
like,
we
assume
the
trend
and
number
of
this
type
of
college
students
in
city
A
according
to
the
city
model
from
question
3,
after
putting
the
data
trends
into
the
Grey
Model
which
mentioned
in
question
1,
we
can
get
the
prediction
model
of
college
students
on
these
items,
based
on
these
above,
we
can
get
the
the
quantitative
prediction
data
by
analyzing
this
phenomenon.
After
that,
we
can
find
the
trend
of
College
Students＇
new
career
preferences,
and
the
types
and
quantities
for
talent
demand
in
the
city＇s
development
planning.
Focus
on
the
structure
of
development
of
this
city,
as
well
as
implementing
the
new
development
concept
of
the
city
in
the
era
of
informationize
and
intelligentialize,
putting
forward
the
corresponding
strategies
of
retaining
and
introducing
talents,
in
order
to
further
plan
the
development,
economic
construction,
scientific
and
technological
innovation
of
A
city.
According
to
the
following
question
5
and
relevant
conclusions
drawn
from
the
above
four
questions,
we
can
get
a
specific
talent
demand
prediction
model
of
A
city.
According
to
the
theoretical
data
which
derived
from
the
prediction
model,
we
adjust
the
training
plan
of
computer
software
professionals,
and
accordingly,
the
corresponding
adjustment
measures
will
be
put
forward
in
the
aspects
of
cultivation
and
personalization
of
College
students
in
the
course
construction,
apply-oriented
talents
as
well.
On
the
premise
of
guaranteeing
the
stability
of
universities
and
majors’
framework,
the
training
of
school
talents
is
more
in
line
with
the
talents
demand
in
A
city
and
the
needs
of
urban
development
planning.Key
words:
Grey
Model,
talent
demand
tendency,
urban
development
planning,
application-oriented
talent
trainingTeam
B85809Contents
Talent
and
urban
development
1
1
Restatement
of
the
question
1
Ⅰ、Introduction
1
Ⅱ、Relevant
data
1
Ⅲ、Specific
questions
1
2
question
analysis
2
Ⅰ、Analysis
of
specific
questions
and
countermeasures
2
Ⅱ、General
analysis
of
the
question
and
the
way
to
solve
it
3
3
Assumptions
of
the
model
3
4
Explanation
of
nouns
and
symbols
4
Ⅰ、Noun
explanation
4
Ⅱ、Symbols
4
5
Establishment
and
solution
of
the
model
5
Ⅰ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
one
5
Ⅱ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
2
13
Ⅲ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
3
18
Ⅳ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
4.........................................................................18
Ⅴ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
5
20
6
Error
analysis
and
sensitivity
analysis
22
Ⅰ、The
error
analysis
22
Ⅱ、Model
rationality
test
and
analysis
22
7
Evaluation
and
generalization
of
the
model
23
Ⅰ、Evaluation
of
model
23
Reference
24Team
B85809
Page
of
24
1
Restatement
of
the
question
Ⅰ、Introduction
1.Background
In
the
past
few
years,
inviting
wisdom
and
attracting
talents
has
been
one
of
the
highlights
of
many
cities.
Beijing,
Shanghai,
wuhan,
chengdu,
xi
＇an
and
shenzhen
are
actually
competing
for
talent
with
attractive
policies.
Talent
is
the
driving
force
for
urban
innovation
and
development,
because
they
have
the
ability
to
learn
better
skills,
make
better
products
and
master
better
management
methods
in
a
shorter
time.
Talents
are
the
main
driving
force
of
urban
innovation
communication,
because
innovation
communication
is
realized
through
the
promotion
of
new
technologies
and
technologies
by
high-quality
talents.
In
today＇s
cities,
in
addition
to
the
local
talent
market,
talent
is
also
recruited
through
the
Internet,
campus
job
fairs
and
open
recruitment
activities
2.Significance
of
research
Talents
are
the
core
elements
of
regional
development,
and
outstanding
talents
are
the
basis
for
realizing
regional
development
goals
and
the
driving
force
for
regional
development.
In
order
to
develop
and
grow,
a
region
should
first
attach
importance
to
gathering
innovative
talents,
actively
explore
new
measures,
paths
and
methods
of
talent
construction,
constantly
strengthen
talent
construction,
and
provide
strong
human
resources
guarantee
for
regional
development.
Ⅱ、Relevant
data
Attached
is
the
job
demand
data
of
one
of
the
largest
municipal
job
markets
in
A
city
(named
“A
city＇s
job
market“).
Ⅲ、Specific
questions
Question
1:
according
to
the
attached
data,
according
to
the
job
demand,
desired
occupation
and
required
education
background,
the
talent
demand
of
“A
city＇s
employment
market“
is
modeled
and
analyzed.
Question
2:
according
to
the
talent
demand
of
“A
City＇s
employment
market“
and
the
employment
status
of
Chinese
students,
the
actual
talent
demand
model
data
of
A
City
can
be
established
according
to
the
additional
data
and
other
necessary
methods,
and
the
potential
talent
demand
of
a-city
in
the
next
three
years
can
be
predicted
and
analyzed.
Question
3:
try
to
use
the
data
and
conclusions
in
question
2
to
infer
the
administrative
category,
possible
geographical
region,
economic
status
and
high-tech
industry
development
of
a-city.
Question4:
in
recent
years,
college
students
have
some
new
career
preferences,
such
as
taking
the
exam
for
village
officials,
taking
the
exam
for
civil
servants,
starting
their
own
businesses,
working
in
other
places
and
studying
abroad.
These
preferences
help
diversify
job
opportunities
for
college
graduates.
This
paper
attempts
to
model
and
quantify
this
phenomenon
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
to
provide
strategies
for
a-city＇s
urban
development
and
talent
introduction.
Question
5:
please
write
to
the
school
authorities
to
find
out
your
Suggestions
and
opinions
on
the
professional
talent
training
plan
you
are
familiar
with,
including
curriculum
construction,
application-oriented
talent
training,
individualization
of
college
students,
and
corresponding
quality
measures
to
ensure
the
university
and
professional
framework
according
to
the
current
market
demand
for
talents.
2
question
analysis
Ⅰ、Analysis
of
specific
questions
and
countermeasures
1.Analysis
and
countermeasures
of
question
1
In
view
of
the
question
of
A
given
data,
we
work
in
accordance
with
the
requirements,
expectations
of
the
occupation
and
education
background
of
the
three
aspects
of
required
for
data
classification
and
analysis
of
corresponding
data
model
is
established
by
MATLAB,
according
to
the
dynamic
change
of
randomness,
index
data
of
incomplete,
uncertainty,
so
the
use
of
gray
theory
model
to
analyze
it,
hope
through
the
grey
system
analysis
of
A
city
four
years
of
talent
demand
data
analysis,
get
the
city
talent
demand
forecasting
model,
through
the
prediction
model
master
“A
city“
the
job
market
demand.
2.Analysis
and
countermeasures
of
question
2
In
order
to
solve
the
question
of
question
2,
we
apply
the
data
model
of
question
1.
In
question
one,
we
have
set
up
“A
City“
the
job
market
demand
forecasting
model
of
grey
system,
by
the
prediction
model,
as
well
as
our
country
economy
development
situation
in
recent
years,
the
development
of
science
and
technology,
national
employment
policy
factors
such
as
the
talent
demand
for
“A
City“
the
job
market,
the
influence
of
the
comprehensive
analysis
to
the
model,
and
analyzes
the
influence
of
various
social
levels
change
to
demand
data,
analysis
to
predict
the
future
three
years
A
-
potential
demand
of
the
City.
3.Analysis
and
countermeasures
of
question
3
For
three
of
the
proposed
questions,
can
according
to
the
data
in
question
2
and
conclusion
is
obtained
by
the
model
to
predict
the
possible
existence
of
urban
characteristics
of
A
city,
and
some
cities
in
our
country＇s
actual
data,
this
paper
compares
and
analyzes
the
categories
on
the
part
of
A
city,
and
possible
geographical
area,
economic
status
and
high-tech
industry
development
to
make
inferences.
4.Analysis
and
countermeasures
of
question
4
The
following
are
proposed
in
question
4:
College
students
A
new
career
preferences,
such
as
taking
the
village
official
test,
take
part
in
the
civil
service
exam,
to
start
my
own
business,
work
in
the
long
distance
and
overseas
to
study,
these
students
after
graduation
to
is
not
in
the
scope
of
urban
demand,
we
will
get
the
city
according
to
the
question
of
three
models
assume
that
such
A
city
college
students
towards
and
quantity,
and
will
move
towards
its
data
and
trend
into
A
gray
theory
model,
are
college
students
on
these
items
to
forecast
model,
on
the
basis
of
A
quantitative
prediction
of
this
phenomenon,
after
get
the
data,
according
to
the
data
of
college
students＇
preference
towards
A
new
career
trends,
As
well
as
the
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
type
and
quantity
of
talent
demand
needed
by
the
city
in
the
development
planning,
the
corresponding
talent
introduction
strategy
is
put
forward.
5.Analysis
and
countermeasures
of
question
5
By
five
proposed
questions,
according
to
the
related
conclusion
from
the
above
four
issues,
we
can
get
A
more
specific
city
A
talented
person
and
the
prediction
model
of
the
college
students
A
new
career
preferences,
according
to
the
theoretical
data
obtained
from
the
model
and
the
actual
social
situation
that
economic
development
situation,
the
development
of
science
and
technology
demand,
the
national
employment
policy
factors
such
as
the
effects
on
the
actual
data,
we
can
be
targeted
for
the
school＇s
professional
talent
training
plan
in
adjustment,
in
the
course
construction,
applied
talents
training,
college
students＇
individualized
aspects
put
forward
the
corresponding
adjustment
measures,
On
the
premise
of
ensuring
that
the
university
and
professional
framework
do
not
change,
the
talent
training
of
the
university
is
more
in
line
with
the
talent
demand
and
urban
development
planning
needs
of
city
A.Ⅱ、General
analysis
of
the
question
and
the
way
to
solve
it
According
to
the
question
setting
of
this
topic
and
the
relevant
data
provided
by
it,
the
group
mainly
applies
the
gray
theory
model
to
analyze
it.
In
terms
of
the
processing
of
this
topic,
it
is
mainly
divided
into
the
following
steps:
first,
relevant
material
data
is
sorted
out
and
analyzed,
and
the
gray
theory
model
is
substituted
for
the
analysis
to
establish
the
basic
model.
Secondly,
by
extending
the
application
of
the
model
and
analyzing
the
real
social
factors,
the
prediction
value
based
on
the
grey
theory
model
is
obtained.
Thirdly,
through
the
analysis
and
arrangement
of
the
relevant
data
of
the
last
four
years
and
the
prediction
of
the
data
of
the
next
three
years,
the
real
city
model
is
compared
to
infer
the
relevant
attributes
of
A
city.
Fourth,
by
the
new
vocational
college
students
prefer
this
new
variable
substitution,
and
sorting
existing
gray
theory
model
and
add
new
variables
and
parameters,
the
new
professional
preferences
to
improve
the
original
model,
the
influence
of
improving
the
gray
theory
model,
and
on
the
basis
of
the
demand
for
talents
and
the
introduction
of
strategy
to
get
the
corresponding
solution;
Fifth,
from
the
perspective
of
university,
how
to
utilize
the
existing
relevant
prediction
models,
talent
demand
is
A
quantitative
estimation
of
A
city,
and
targeted
to
the
school
personnel
training
strategy
to
implement
the
corresponding
improvement,
to
adapt
to
the
urban
demand,
and
accordingly
to
meet
the
needs
of
the
employment
of
college
students,
in
order
to
improve
the
school
personnel
training
strategy
feasibility.
3
Assumptions
of
the
model
1.
Suppose
the
background
of
the
topic
in
question
2
is
set
as
the
economic
development
situation,
the
demand
for
scientific
and
technological
development,
and
the
national
employment
policy
of
China.
2.
In
this
paper,
the
vertical
axis
of
all
charts
represents
the
number
of
people,
and
the
horizontal
axis
represents
the
year
and
month,
from
1
to
36,
respectively,
from
September
2015
to
August
2012
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
4
Explanation
of
nouns
and
symbols
Ⅰ、Noun
explanation
1.Grey
model
If
a
system
has
the
fuzziness
of
hierarchical
and
structural
relations,
the
randomness
of
dynamic
changes,
the
incompleteness
or
uncertainty
of
index
data,
then
these
characteristics
are
called
gray.
A
system
with
a
gray
character
is
called
a
gray
system.
The
prediction
model
established
for
the
grey
system
is
called
the
grey
model,
or
GM
model
for
short,
which
reveals
the
process
of
continuous
development
and
change
of
things
inside
the
system.
That
is,
through
a
small
amount
of
incomplete
information,
the
grey
differential
prediction
model
is
established
to
describe
the
development
law
of
things
in
a
fuzzy
way
for
a
long
time
(a
branch
of
forecasting
science
with
relatively
perfect
theories
and
methods
in
the
field
of
fuzzy
prediction).
2.Mean
variance
ratio
test
Let＇s
say
the
ratio
of
mean
to
variance
is
，Among
them
is
the
mean
variance
of
the
sequence
residuals,Is
the
mean
variance
of
the
original
sequence.The
smaller
the
size
of
mean
variance
ratio,
the
better
the
accuracy
of
the
prediction
model.
3.Smoothness
test
Through
the
formula
of
，（n=1,2,3，...，m-1）conduct
smoothness
test，while
n>3，p<0.5,
satisfies
the
smoothness
condition.
4.Exponential
law
test
Through
the
formula
of
，（n=2,3，...，m）Perform
exponential
rule
tests，while
n>3，，is
exponential.
Ⅱ、Symbols
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
serial
number
symbol
Symbols
1
β
Mean
variance
ratio
2
S1
Mean
variance
of
the
original
sequence
3
S2
Mean
variance
of
sequence
residuals
4
p（n）
Smoothness
test
parameters
5
q（n）
Exponential
law
tests
parameters
6
X
A
sequence
of
known
data
5
Establishment
and
solution
of
the
model
Ⅰ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
one
1.Analysis
of
the
question
For
A
given
data,
the
analysis
judgment
concluded
that
we
need
to
use
statistics
to
complete
A
known
about
the
job
requirements
and
expectations
of
the
occupation
and
education
background
required
for
these
three
aspects
of
data
model,
enables
it
to
achieve
realistic
data,
so
we
build
corresponding
data
model
by
MATLAB,
the
dynamic
changes
of
randomness,
according
to
the
data
of
incomplete,
uncertainty
index
data,
so
the
use
of
gray
theory
model
to
analyze
it,
expect
the
city
talent
demand
forecasting
is
obtained
by
grey
system
analysis
model,
master
“A
city“
the
job
market
demand
2.
The
solution
of
the
problem
2.1
Model
preparation
（1）Data
preprocessing：
First
numerical
pretreatment,
due
to
the
materials
given
in
the
data
for
each
position
according
to
the
statistics
in
the
talent
supply
and
demand
according
to
the
classification
of
degree
required
talents,
therefore,
for
the
convenience
of
longitudinal
data
analysis
based
on
time
axis,
the
original
data
to
carry
on
the
corresponding
processing,
for
each
post,
from
2015.9
2018.8
to
the
timeline
for
the
benchmark
data
table
statistics,
data
statistics,
there
are
the
actual
supply,
according
to
the
classification
of
degree
required
talents
demand,
the
total
demand,
three
aspects
of
data
respectively
corresponding
to
the
topic
of
work
requirements,
the
required
education
background,
job
expectations,
After
preprocessing
the
data,
the
grey
theoretical
model
was
selected
for
analysis
based
on
the
data
characteristics
and
our
question-solving
ideas,
and
the
grey
theoretical
model
was
established
by
MATLAB
according
to
the
position..
（2）Data
analysis：
According
to
the
data
subject
material,
and
the
data
using
MATLAB
to
the
grey
theory
model,
according
to
the
job
requirements,
the
required
education
background,
job
expectations
three
aspects
to
analyze
the
data
and
will
be
subject
to
jobs,
according
to
each
position
in
the
timeline
of
the
order
of
the
overall
data
analysis,
nested
gray
theory
model,
the
theory
of
grey
mathematical
model
is
set
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
up
for
each
position,
according
to
the
variance
ratio
test,
the
smoothness
inspection,
exponential
rule,
the
rationality
of
the
data
from
model
test.
2.2
Modeling
（1）
According
to
the
material
data,
the
grey
theory
model
is
established.
（2）According
to
variance
ratio
test,
smoothness
test
and
exponential
law
test,
the
rationality
of
the
obtained
data
model
was
tested.
Among
them：
Let＇s
say
the
mean
variance
ratio
is
，
Among
themis
the
mean
variance
of
the
sequence
residuals，is
the
mean
variance
of
the
original
sequence.The
smaller
the
mean
variance
ratiois，the
better
the
accuracy
of
the
prediction
model.
Through
the
formula，（n=1,2,3，...，m-1）,to
test
the
smoothness,while
n>3，p<0.5,
satisfies
the
smoothness
condition.
Through
the
formula，（n=2,3，...，m）,perform
exponential
rule
test，while
n>3，，Exponential
law.
Finally,
we
have
a
grey
theoretical
model
with
good
fit
is
obtained.
For
reasons
of
length,
the
visual
processing
of
the
model
established
by
arbitrarily
selecting
several
occupations
is
as
follows：
【mark】
（The
red
line——The
actual
value）
（The
blue
line——The
predictive
value）Team
B85809
Page
of
24Team
B85809
Page
of
24Team
B85809
Page
of
24Team
B85809
Page
of
24
??????????????????
Team
B85809
Page
of
24According
to
the
variance
ratio
test,
smoothness
test
and
exponential
rule
test
mentioned
above,
the
model
data
reflected
in
the
above
chart
can
be
sorted
out
to
obtain:
（For
reasons
of
length,
only
examples
are
given.
Other
posts
and
positions
are
handled
in
the
same
way）
Eg.
Technical?work
①P（n）as
the
following
table
0.9792
0.3737
0.2375
0.1703
1.1746
0.4501
0.1233
0.1307
0.0753
0.0700
0.0792
0.0713
0.0785
0.0543
0.0437
0.0063
0.2112
0.0790
0.0261
0.0406
0.0280
0.0119
0.0725
0.0403
0.0257
0.0238
0.0169
0.0132
0.0551
0.1395
0.0278
0.0447
0.0410
0.0293
0.0326
0
According
to
the
smoothness
rule，while
n>3，P（n）
data
in
the
table
are
basically
less
than
0.5（exclude
very
few
data
values
with
observational
error
and
representative
error），so
the
predicted
value
satisfies
the
smoothness
condition.
②q（n）as
the
following
table
1.4938
1.9988
2.3134
2.6356
1.6700
1.5998
1.0180
1.1358
1.3408
1.3551
1.1313
1.1775
1.0093
1.3658
1.6289
10.9749
1.6725
1.2689
2.0725
1.3111
1.8466
4.2789
1.2992
1.1867
1.8110
1.9267
2.6809
3.3992
1.1856
1.6920
1.3688
1.1629
1.1160
1.2002
1.0598
1Rule
by
exponential
rule，whiel
n>3，q（n）
data
in
the
table
are
basically
within
the
interval
[1,1.5]（exclude
very
few
data
values
with
observational
error
and
representative
error），the
predicted
value
satisfies
the
smoothness
condition.
③By
A
=
inv
(b.
＇*
B)
*
B
*
YN.＇
can
get
A
=
0.0106,
so
the
model
can
be
used
for
speculation
or
for
the
medium
and
long
term
forecast.
In
other
words,
the
obtained
model
is
X(k+1)=13175.9674exp(0.010601k)-13079.9674
That
is
the
Technical
work
grey
theoretical
model
According
to
the
solution
results
of
this
post
grey
theory
model,
the
general
solution
of
the
model
can
be
obtained
asclose?all;clear?all;clc
y=xlsread(＇D:＼1＼zhiye＼Technical?work.xlsx＇)
w=GM1_1(y(:,13)＇)
i=1
j=1
k=38
a=w(1)
b=w(2)Team
B85809
Page
of
24
c=w(3)
y2=[]
Y3=[]
XY=[]
while(i
????y2(i)=[b*exp(-a*i)+c]
????i=i+1
end
while(j????Y3(j)=y2(j+1)-y2(j)
j=j+1
end
x=1:1:36
d=Y3
e=y(:,13)
plot(x,d,＇-＇,x,e,＇-*＇)
??axis([1,36,0,700])
xlabel(＇Month＇)
ylabel(＇Number＇)
title(＇Technical?work＇)function
w=GM1_1(X0)
[m,n]=size(X0);
X1=cumsum(X0);
X2=[];
for
i=1:n-1
X2(i,:)=X1(i)+X1(i+1);
end
B=-0.5.*X2
;
t=ones(n-1,1);
B=[B,t]
;
YN=X0(2:end)
;
P_t=YN./X1(1:(length(X0)-1))
A=inv(B.＇*B)*B.＇*YN.＇
;
a=A(1)
u=A(2)
c=u/a
;
b=X0(1)-c
;
X=[num2str(b),＇exp＇,＇(＇,num2str(-a),＇k＇,＇)＇,num2str(c)];
strcat(＇X(k+1)=＇,X)
for
t=1:length(X0)
k(1,t)=t-1;
end
k
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
Y_k_1=b*exp(-a*k)+c;
for
j=1:length(k)-1
Y(1,j)=Y_k_1(j+1)-Y_k_1(j);
end
XY=[Y_k_1(1),Y]
w=[a,b,c]
CA=abs(XY-X0)
Theta=CA
XD_Theta=
CA
./
X0
AV=mean(CA);
R_k=(min(Theta)+0.5*max(Theta))./(Theta+0.5*max(Theta))
;
R=sum(R_k)/length(R_k)
Temp0=(CA-AV).^2
;
Temp1=sum(Temp0)/length(CA);
S2=sqrt(Temp1)
;
AV_0=mean(X0);
Temp_0=(X0-AV_0).^2
;
Temp_1=sum(Temp_0)/length(CA);
S1=sqrt(Temp_1)
;
TempC=S2/S1*100;
C=strcat(num2str(TempC),＇%＇)
SS=0.675*S1
;
Delta=abs(CA-AV)
;
TempN=find(Delta<=SS);
N1=length(TempN);
N2=length(CA);
TempP=N1/N2*100;
P=strcat(num2str(TempP),＇%＇)
Ⅱ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
2
1.Analysis
of
the
question
With
two
proposed
questions,
this
question
needs
to
be
considered
in
the
question
solving
our
country
economy
development
situation
in
recent
years,
the
development
of
science
and
technology
demand,
the
national
employment
policy
factors
such
as
the
talent
demand
for
“A
City“
the
job
market,
then
these
factors
into
the
question
of
A
comprehensive
analysis
of
grey
theory
model,
analysis
the
influence
of
various
social
levels
data
changes
to
the
talent
demand,
forecast
analysis
to
three
years
A
-
potential
demand
of
the
City.
2.The
solution
of
the
question
Check
according
to
the
data,
and
then
analyzed
data
processing,
we
can
get
there
may
be
in
the
next
three
years,
our
country＇s
economic
development
situation,
the
development
of
science
and
technology
demand,
the
national
employment
policy
factors
such
as
the
influence
of
the
demand
for
talent,
the
question
A
of
the
proceeds
of
the
gray
theory
model,
we
can
in
three
A
-
City
of
potential
demand
for
roughly
predict,
visualization
processing
by
MATLAB
to
predict
the
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
results
are
as
follows
(due
to
space
only
for
A
few
more
representative
to
predict
the
position
and
through
correlation
analysis
of
potential
demand
for
all
kinds
of
jobs)
:Team
B85809
Page
of
24Team
B85809
Page
of
24Team
B85809
Page
of
24（Due
to
space
constraints,
some
career
charts
are
omitted）
According
to
A
city
have
professional
type,
can
be
roughly
classified
as
information,
services,
finance,
health,
market,
law,
media,
types,
such
as
the
project
by
the
above
analysis
of
the
grey
theory
model
city
A
talent
demand
trends
in
the
next
three
years,
and
reference
for
our
country＇s
economic
development
situation,
the
development
of
science
and
technology
demand,
employment
policies
of
the
state,
and
so
on
comprehensive
impact
analysis,
is
A
city
in
the
next
three
years
city
talent
demand
in
the
field
of
engineering
technology,
etc,
on
the
basis
of
the
model
prediction,
is
on
the
rise,
and
flatten
out
the
cultural
production;
The
information
field
shows
a
downward
trend;
In
the
case
of
rapid
growth,
the
number
of
employees
in
the
service
industry
may
tend
to
be
saturated,
and
the
number
of
talents
in
demand
may
tend
to
be
stable
or
the
growth
rate
may
decrease.
On
the
basis
of
the
rapid
decline
in
the
overall
forecast
of
health
care,
the
decrease
in
the
demand
rate
may
be
slowed
down
in
the
next
three
years.
According
to
China＇s
existing
employment
policies,
there
may
be
a
certain
degree
of
rebound.
In
terms
of
law,
it
is
less
affected
by
other
factors.
Therefore,
according
to
the
prediction
model,
it
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
can
be
judged
that
its
rise
or
fall
is
very
small
and
basically
in
a
relatively
stable
state.Ⅲ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
3
1.Analysis
of
the
question
Question
3
is
in
view
of
the
city
administrative
categories,
possible
geographic
areas,
economic
development
of
high-tech
industry
status
and
related
theories,
we
can
according
to
the
question
of
grey
theory
model,
the
demand
for
the
employment
of
the
city
divided
into
types
of
general
trends
and
the
percentage
of
model
prediction,
through
professional
requirement
type
percentage
and
its
change
trend,
can
be
broadly
possible
geographical
area
of
A
city,
economic
status
and
development
of
high-tech
industries
in
speculation.
2.The
solution
of
the
question
Data
obtained
by
two
gray
theory
model
we
professional
requirement
type
percentage
of
A
city
and
its
change
trend
based
on
the
gray
theory
model
and
forecasting,
got
the
city
vocational
percentage
requirement
types
and
the
change
tendency,
from
these
data,
and
other
cities
in
our
country
related
data
(online
access
to
draw)
analogy,
after
finishing
can
be
concluded
that
A
city
can
be
A
tertiary
industry
such
as
tourism,
services
for
the
urban
development,
cities
with
preference
for
domestic
tourists
tourist
attractions,
the
urban
population
is
relatively
small,
the
information
industry
development
is
slow
in
the
field
of
second-tier
cities.
Ⅳ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
4
1.Analysis
of
the
question
New
college
students＇
career
preferences,
such
as
taking
the
village
official
test,
take
part
in
the
civil
service
exam,
to
start
my
own
business,
work
in
the
long
distance
and
overseas
to
study,
solve
the
question,
should
be
based
on
data
reflects
the
trend
of
college
students＇
preference
towards
a
new
career,
as
well
as
the
city
in
development
planning
need
the
type
and
amount
of
talent
demand,
targeted
put
forward
the
corresponding
strategy
of
talent
introduction.
2.The
solution
of
the
question
Based
on
the
search
for
the
related
information,
to
take
part
in
the
civil
service
exam,
to
start
my
own
business,
work
in
the
long
distance
and
overseas
to
learn
the
three
direction
of
college
students,
to
the
establishment
of
the
grey
theory
model
using
similar
methods
to
question
1,
modeling
and
quantization,
it
is
concluded
that
the
predictive
results
of
the
three
directions
for
the
future
development
trend
(see
chart).
Civil
service
examination：
Team
B85809
Page
of
24Work
in
a
different
place：
Overseas：Team
B85809
Page
of
24The
prediction
data
obtained
by
the
grey
theory
model
and
the
graphs
obtained
by
visual
processing
combined
with
the
conclusions
obtained
by
the
second
and
third
questions
can
provide
strategies
for
the
development
and
talent
introduction
of
city
A
as
follows：
（1）
According
to
the
city
tourism
service
industry
as
A
pillar
industry,
Suggestions
on
this
basis,
the
accumulation
of
the
economy,
the
development
of
high-tech,
accelerate
the
construction
of
information,
the
intelligence
information
industries
as
well
as
the
field
of
Internet
of
things
combined
with
the
urban
development
of
pillar
industries,
supplement
each
other,
for
better
and
faster
to
make
urban
areas
such
as
economy,
science
and
technology
get
all-round
development.
（2）
Brain
drain
present
situation,
for
A
city
should
be
in
employment
policy,
welfare
and
other
related
social
conditions
on
the
measures
to
attract
college
students
after
graduation
stay
in
the
development
of
the
local
employment
policy
regulations,
relevant
enterprises
shall,
in
the
post
and
position
on
A
certain
degree
of
innovation,
the
college
students＇
practical
skills
and
the
way
of
the
development
of
the
enterprise,
create
more
jobs,
higher
level
of
industry
development
planning.
Ⅴ、Analysis
and
solution
of
question
5
1.Analysis
of
the
question
By
five
proposed
questions,
according
to
the
related
conclusion
from
the
above
four
issues,
we
have
to
get
A
more
specific
city
A
talented
person
and
the
prediction
model
of
the
college
students
A
new
career
preferences,
according
to
the
theoretical
data
obtained
from
the
model
and
the
actual
social
situation
that
economic
development
situation,
the
development
of
science
and
technology
demand,
the
national
employment
policy
factors
such
as
the
effects
on
the
actual
data,
we
can
be
targeted
for
the
school＇s
professional
talent
training
plan
in
adjustment,
in
the
course
construction,
applied
talents
training,
college
students＇
individualized
aspects
put
forward
the
corresponding
adjustment
measures,
On
the
premise
of
ensuring
that
the
framework
of
university
and
major
does
not
change
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
,
the
talent
cultivation
of
university
is
more
in
line
with
the
talent
demand
and
urban
development
planning
needs
of
city
a.
in
the
process
of
solving
the
question,
we
will
take
“computer
software
major“
as
an
example
to
solve
question
52.The
solution
of
the
question
Dear
President,
I
learned
that
computer
software
professional
is
one
of
the
key
construction
of
undergraduate
programs
in
our
school,
the
professional
including
professional
quality,
professional
knowledge
and
skills
of
study,
and
is
equipped
with
computer
application
specialty,
the
plane
design
professional,
netease
web
design,
program
design,
such
as
major
in
professional
place,
its
courses
including
mathematics,
foreign
language,
such
as
basic
computer
basic
course
and
Office,
program
design,
computer
networks,
and
other
professional
course,
enable
students
to
understand
and
grasp
the
basic
theory,
basic
knowledge
and
basic
professional
operation
ability,
can
the
integrated
use
of
curriculum
theory
and
knowledge
to
solve
practical
questions. Our
school
has
done
a
good
job
in
setting
up
continuation
majors.
Diversified
continuation
majors
can
fully
stimulate
students＇
interest
and
ability,
help
our
school
to
cultivate
diversified
talents,
and
greatly
improve
the
employment
rate
of
undergraduate
students.According
to
the
statistics
of
the
demand
of
the
computer
software
industry
in
our
city
in
recent
years
and
our
modeling
analysis,
the
market
demand
of
the
computer
software
industry
in
the
future
will
decline,
but
the
market
demand
of
the
tertiary
industry,
mainly
the
tourism
service
industry,
will
increase.
In
view
of
this
reality,
we
put
forward
the
following
Suggestions:1.
Combine
the
computer
major
with
the
tertiary
industry
organically,
improve
the
flexibility
and
adaptability
of
the
major,
make
it
able
to
cope
with
the
decline
of
market
demand
in
the
computer
software
industry,
and
prevent
the
decline
of
professional
employment
rate;2.
Computer
software
major
is
a
major
with
strong
practicality.
Our
school
should
strengthen
the
construction
of
practical
skills,
increase
the
teaching
hours
of
practical
courses,
increase
the
proportion
of
practical
course
credits
in
the
total
credits,
make
full
use
of
the
practical
training
and
internship
room
of
our
school,
and
guide
students
to
pay
attention
to
the
training
and
cultivation
of
practical
skills.3.
The
school
should
actively
contact
with
zhuhai
various
professional
related
enterprise,
establishing
a
stable
relationship
of
internship
training,
better
able
to
exercise
the
students＇
practical
ability,
to
master
relevant
skills.
Can
also
be
used
with
the
enterprise
implements
the
union
school,
enable
students
to
set
a
clear
career
goal
as
early
as
possible,
to
inspire
the
students＇
initiative,
enthusiasm
and
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
creativity,
relatively
stable
jobs
for
our
graduates,
improve
the
employment
rate
in
our
school.
6
Error
analysis
and
sensitivity
analysis
Ⅰ、The
error
analysis
1.
The
data
will
be
affected
by
some
non-social
factors
and
some
humanistic
factors,
and
some
individual
data
that
are
far
from
the
model
may
appear,
causing
errors.
2.
Statistical
data
are
affected
by
graduation
season,
holidays,
New
Year
and
other
factors,
resulting
in
a
sudden
decrease
or
increase
in
the
number
of
people
taking
office.
Ⅱ、Model
rationality
test
and
analysis
Let＇s
say
the
ratio
of
mean
to
variance
is
，
is
the
mean
variance
of
the
sequence
residuals,
and
is
the
mean
variance
of
the
original
sequence.The
smaller
the
mean
variance
ratio,
the
better
the
accuracy
of
the
prediction
model.
Through
the
formula，（n=1,2,3，...，m-1）for
smoothness
test.
When
n>3，p<0.5,
then
meets
the
smoothness
condition.
Through
the
formula，（n=2,3，...，m）o
test
the
exponential
law，When
n>3，，theconforms
to
the
exponential
law.
Eg.
Technical?work
①The
values
of
P
(n)
are
shown
in
the
table
below
0.9792
0.3737
0.2375
0.1703
1.1746
0.4501
0.1233
0.1307
0.0753
0.0700
0.0792
0.0713
0.0785
0.0543
0.0437
0.0063
0.2112
0.0790
0.0261
0.0406
0.0280
0.0119
0.0725
0.0403
0.0257
0.0238
0.0169
0.0132
0.0551
0.1395
0.0278
0.0447
0.0410
0.0293
0.0326
0
According
to
the
smoothness
judgment
rule,
when?
n>3，P
(n)
exists
as
the
data
in
the
table
is
basically
less
than
0.5
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
（Exclude
very
few
data
values
with
observational
error
and
representative
error），so
the
predicted
value
satisfies
the
smoothness
condition。②The
values
of
q
(n)
are
shown
in
the
table
below
1.4938
1.9988
2.3134
2.6356
1.6700
1.5998
1.0180
1.1358
1.3408
1.3551
1.1313
1.1775
1.0093
1.3658
1.6289
10.9749
1.6725
1.2689
2.0725
1.3111
1.8466
4.2789
1.2992
1.1867
1.8110
1.9267
2.6809
3.3992
1.1856
1.6920
1.3688
1.1629
1.1160
1.2002
1.0598
1So
the
exponential
rule
says
when
n>3，q（n）The
data
in
the
table
are
basically
within
the
interval
[1,1.5]（Exclude
very
few
data
values
with
observational
error
and
representative
error），the
predicted
value
satisfies
the
smoothness
condition。③ByA=inv(B.＇*B)*B.＇*YN.＇
availableA=-0.0106，therefore,
this
model
can
be
used
for
medium
-
and
long-term
speculation
or
prediction。
That
is,
the
established
model
accords
with
the
rationality
test。
7
Evaluation
and
generalization
of
the
model
Ⅰ、Evaluation
of
model
1.
Advantages
（1）In
line
with
the
actual
urban
talent
demand
model,
it
is
able
to
predict
and
analyze
for
a
certain
period
of
time。
（2）The
model
construction
is
simple
and
easy
to
understand。
（3）The
visualization
effect
is
good,
and
the
data
can
be
observed
and
predicted
more
intuitively。
2.
Disadvantages
（1）Models
are
rigid
and
difficult
to
add
other
influencing
data.
（2）The
model
data
processing
is
not
detailed
enough
to
predict
the
data
trend
in
more
detailed
time,
so
it
can
only
be
predicted
and
analyzed
in
a
large
time
dimension。
Team
B85809
Page
of
24
Reference
[1]Li
Yanan.
Research
on
countermeasures
of
Tianjin
professional
and
technical
talents
based
on
talent
demand
forecast.
Tianjin
university，2015.12.4
灰色理论模型在城市发展规划中的应用(英文) 本文关键词：英文，发展规划，灰色，模型，理论
灰色理论模型在城市发展规划中的应用(英文) 来源：网络整理
免责声明：本文仅限学习分享，如产生版权问题，请联系我们及时删除。
《灰色理论模型在城市发展规划中的应用(英文)》
由：76范文网互联网用户整理提供,链接地址：
http://m.yuan0.cn/a/58032.html
免责声明：本文仅限学习分享，如产生版权问题，请联系我们及时删除。